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Predicting future violence among criminal offenders is notoriously difficult. In the previous editions of this popular book, the authors argued that community risk management is best done with actuarial assessment. Combining what is known about violence prediction, clinical decision making, and the literature on treatment outcome and program evaluation, they introduced and chronicled the development of their landmark assessment instruments, the Violence Risk Appraisal Guide (VRAG) and Sex Offender Risk Appraisal Guide. These have become go-to resources for forensic psychologists in the trenches today.
In this third edition, the authors review the major changes in the risk assessment field, which include a much larger and richer empirical literature, a focus on dynamic risk management among supervised offenders, and commentaries on the use and effectiveness of expert clinical judgment in determining risk. Perhaps most important, they also introduce the VRAG-R, a new actuarial tool that is easier to score than the VRAG and the SORAG while delivering equally accurate results. Written with the authors' usual clarity and keen insight, this book is a must-read for legal professionals and forensic psychologists, policymakers, and all those working with offender populations who hope to eliminate recidivism.

Tabla de contenidos provista por Syndetics

• Acknowledgments(p. xv)
• Introduction(p. 3)
• I Historical and Methodological Context(p. 15)
• Chapter 1 Historical Perspective and Early Prediction Research(p. 17)
• North American Institutions(p. 18)
• Adjudication of Insanity Acquittees(p. 22)
• Preventive Detention(p. 28)
• Mentally Disordered Offenders in Ontario(p. 29)
• Oak Ridge(p. 30)
• Summary of the History(p. 32)
• Previous Research on Prediction(p. 33)
• Empirical Prediction of Recidivism(p. 35)
• Critique(p. 39)
• Conclusion(p. 45)
• Chapter 2 Methods and Measurement(p. 47)
• Some Terms Defined(p. 48)
• Effect Sizes(p. 49)
• Measuring Predictive Accuracy(p. 53)
• Relative Operating Characteristic(p. 54)
• II A New Generation of Follow-Up Research(p. 61)
• Chapter 3 Mentally Disordered and Other Violent Offenders(p. 63)
• Characteristics of Mentally Disordered Offenders(p. 64)
• A Follow-Up of a Maximum-Security Token Economy(p. 68)
• A Follow-Up of a Maximum-Security Therapeutic Community(p. 70)
• A Case-Controlled Follow-Up of Insanity Acquittees(p. 77)
• Recidivism of Schizophrenic and Nonschizophtenic Offenders(p. 80)
• Psychiatric Comorbidity and the Prediction of Violence(p. 85)
• Conclusion(p. 89)
• Chapter 4 Sex Offenders(p. 93)
• Sex Offenders and Sexual Preferences(p. 95)
• Phallometry and Faking(p. 102)
• Other Factors Unique to Sex Offenders(p. 105)
• Predictors of Recidivism Among Sex Offenders(p. 107)
• Treatment for Sex Offenders(p. 112)
• Toward Explaining Sexual Aggression(p. 115)
• Conclusion(p. 118)
• III Development of Actuarial Violence Risk Assessment Tools(p. 119)
• Chapter 5 The Actuarial Prediction of Violence(p. 121)
• Constructing an Actuarial Assessment(p. 122)
• VRAG(p. 128)
• SORAG(p. 137)
• VRAG-R(p. 142)
• Redundancy and Robustness of the VRAG, SORAG, and VRAG-R: Applying the Instruments to Particular Sub-populations(p. 145)
• Replications of the VRAG and SORAG by Other Investigators and Extensions to Other Populations and Outcomes(p. 149)
• Sex Offenders(p. 156)
• Participants With Intellectual Disabilities(p. 161)
• Extensions to Different Populations(p. 162)
• Meta-Analysis and Conclusions(p. 164)
• IV Changing the Practice of Violence Risk Assessment(p. 169)
• Chapter 6 Clinical Judgment(p. 171)
• Human Judgment(p. 172)
• Clinical Intuition(p. 173)
• Clinical Prediction of Violence(p. 174)
• Clinical and Actuarial Prediction(p. 178)
• Management of Risk in Forensic Facilities(p. 187)
• Professional Training and Expertise(p. 190)
• Conclusion(p. 194)
• Chapter 7 Criticisms of Actuarial Risk Assessment(p. 195)
• Twenty Arguments Against Actuarial Violence Risk Appraisal(p. 197)
• Presenting Evidence About Actuarial Risk Appraisal(p. 219)
• V Altering the Risk of Violence and Final Conclusions(p. 223)
• Chapter 8 Treatment and Management(p. 225)
• Planning Institutional Treatment(p. 227)
• The Process of Recidivism and Relapse Prevention(p. 248)
• Dynamic Risk(p. 250)
• Conclusion(p. 265)
• Chapter 9 Final Conclusions(p. 267)
• Actuarial Prediction and Theory(p. 269)
• Last Words(p. 281)
• Appendixes
• A Violence Risk Appraisal Guide (VRAG) Items and Norms(p. 285)
• B Sex Offender Risk Appraisal Guide (SORAG) Items and Norms(p. 289)
• C Violence Risk Appraisal Guide-Revised (VRAG-R) Items and Norms(p. 295)
• D Supplementary Scoring Instructions for the Violence Risk Appraisal Guide, Sex Offender Risk Appraisal Guide, and the Violence Risk Appraisal Guide-Revised Items(p. 301)
• E General Questions About the Violence Risk Appraisal Guide, Sex Offender Risk Appraisal Guide, and the Violence Risk Appraisal Guide-Revised(p. 311)
• E rorating and Substituting for Missing Items on the Violence Risk Appraisal Guide, Sex Offender Risk Appraisal Guide, and Violence Risk Appraisal Guide-Revised(p. 321)
• G Example Psychosocial History Suitable for Scoring the Violence Risk Appraisal Guide, Sex Offender Risk Appraisal Guide, and the Violence Risk Appraisal Guide-Revised(p. 325)
• H Example Psychosocial History Suitable for Scoring the Violence Risk Appraisal Guide and the Violence Risk Appraisal Guide-Revised(p. 343)
• I Model Risk Appraisal Report Based on the Psychosocial History in Appendix G Using the Violence Risk Appraisal Guide(p. 357)
• J Forensic Institutional Decisions or Recommendations Scheme(p. 365)
• K Problem Identification Checklist (File Version)(p. 369)
• L Proximal Risk Factor Scale(p. 373)
• M Dynamic Risk Appraisal Scale(p. 375)
• References(p. 381)
• Index(p. 457)
• About the Authors(p. 469)

Notas de autor provistas por Syndetics

Grant T. Harris, PhD, was an adjunct associate professor of psychology at Queen's University at Kingston and an adjunct professor of psychiatry at the University of Toronto. Dr. Harris was awarded several competitive research grants and published more than 150 scholarly works on the topics of actuarial violence risk assessment, sexual aggression, psychopathy, and the assessment and treatment of offenders and psychiatric clients. For each topic, the work addressed four issues: risks for the phenomenon, appropriate intervention, translation of knowledge for practitioners, and policy implications of the findings.

Sadly, Dr. Harris suffered a fatal stroke in October 2014.

Marnie E. Rice, PhD, is a fellow of the Royal Society of Canada, Canada's highest academic accolade. She has worked at Waypoint Centre for Mental Health Care (formerly called the Mental Health Centre Penetanguishene) for 40 years as a clinical psychologist, researcher, and, for 14 years, director of research. She is currently Research Director Emerita and continues her research part time.

Dr. Rice is also a professor of psychiatry and behavioral neurosciences (part time) at McMaster University, a professor of psychiatry (adjunct) at the University of Toronto, and an associate professor of psychology (adjunct) at Queen's University. She has more than 150 scientific publications, including approximately 30 on the topic of violence risk assessment.

Vernon L. Quinsey, PhD, is Professor Emeritus of psychology, biology, and psychiatry at Queen's University, Kingston, Ontario and former director of research at the Penetanguishene, Ontario, Mental Health Centre. He is a recipient of a Significant Achievement Award from the Association for the Treatment of Sexual Abusers, a Career Contribution Award from the Criminal Justice Section of the Canadian Psychological Association, and the Donald Hebb Award for contributions to psychology as a science from the Canadian Psychological Association.

Catherine A. Cormier, BA, was a research and clinical psychometrist for many years with the Research Department at the Mental Health Centre Penetanguishene, now the Waypoint Centre for Mental Health Care. Her work was devoted to research and clinical assessment and treatment for violent offenders, particularly sex offenders and psychopaths.

Ms. Cormier and her colleagues also developed the Ontario Domestic Assault Risk Assessment, the actuarial prediction instrument for domestic assaulters in conjunction with the Ontario Provincial Police, provincial corrections, and emergency clinics. Her last project involved the evaluation of the implementation of an evidence-based, integrated 3-month treatment for people with substance abuse and concurrent psychiatric diagnoses.