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Every two years, exit polls become the most widely analyzed, written about, and discussed data-set in the United States. Although exit polls are known for their use in predictingelections, they are in fact the best tool for explainingelection results. Exit polls are taken from actual voters, whereas pre-election polls that tally people's intended votes tend to overstate the number of people who will actually go to the polls.

Exit Polls: Surveying the American Electorateis a groundbreaking new reference work that explores for the first time the trends in longitudinal variables asked in the national Election Day exit polls from their beginning in 1972 to the present. The book documents comparable survey items that have appeared in multiple exit polls over time. Authors Samuel J. Best and Brian S. Krueger--both election commentators for CBS news and statistical experts--present more than 100 tables and 100 figures showing the changes in the American electorate and its voting patterns over time. This work represents the first time exit poll data has been combined to show trends over time.

Chapter one: The Exit Poll Phenomenon providesa brief history of exit polls and chronicles how they evolved into their current arrangement. It explains how exit poll questions are developed, the sampling and weighting procedures used, the reporting protocols adopted, and the benefits and limitations of exit polls.

Chapter two: Creating and Using Exit Poll Time Seriesdescribes how individual exit polls were compiled into a first of its kind cumulative data file and discusses the rationale for selecting specific survey items. The chapter explains the techniques used to merge the data and discusses the framework used to present the data in the subsequent chapters.

Chapter three: Composition of Voters in Federal Electionsfocuses on changes in the demographic and ideological composition of the electorate over almost forty years, including gender, age, race, sexual orientation, education, income, religion, party membership, and military service.

Chapter four: The Presidential Voting Preferences of the Active Electorateexamines the presidential voting patterns of the various groups that make up the American electorate, from 1972 to 2010.

Chapter five: The Congressional Voting Preferences of the Active Electorateexamines the congressional voting patterns of the various groups that make up the American electorate from 1972 to 2010.

Offering unique insight into the American electorate, this important new work is meant to serve novice and expert researchers alike. Libraries with holdings in American politics and government will want to acquire this one-of-a-kind resource.

Tabla de contenidos provista por Syndetics

• Tables and Figures(p. vii)
• Preface(p. xv)
• About the Authors(p. xix)
• Chapter 1 The Exit Poll Phenomenon(p. 1)
• A History of Exit Polls
• How Exit Polls Work
• Advantages and Disadvantages of Exit Polls
• Design of the Book
• Chapter 2 Creating and Using Exit Poll Time Series(p. 27)
• Creating a Cumulative National Data Set
• Analyzing Exit Poll Questions
• Presenting and Discussing the Exit Poll Data
• Chapter 3 Composition of the Exit Polls(p. 49)
• Physical Traits
• Geographic Location
• Religious Characteristics
• Lifestyle Characteristics
• Political Orientations
• Economic Considerations
• Comparing the Presidential and Midterm Exit Polls
• Chapter 4 Presidential Voting Preferences of Exit Poll Respondents(p. 123)
• Presidential Vote Choice
• Physical Characteristics
• Geographic Location
• Religious Characteristics
• Lifestyle Characteristics
• Political Orientations
• Economic Considerations
• Partisan Predispositions of the Presidential Exit Polls
• Chapter 5 Congressional Voting Preferences of Exit Poll Respondents(p. 205)
• Congressional Vote Choice
• Physical Characteristics
• Geographic Location
• Religious Characteristics
• Lifestyle Characteristics
• Political Orientations
• Economic Considerations
• Partisan Predispositions of the Congressional Exit Polls
• Index(p. 299)

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Library Journal Review

Of inestimable value in election forecasting, exit polls constitute the primary means by which real-time election results are predicted. The subject is typically subsumed in general works on polling or elections. This title treats it explicitly. Polling experts Best (political science, Univ. of Connecticut; CBS exit poll analyst) and Krueger's (political science, Univ. of Rhode Island; former CBS exit poll analyst; coauthor, with Best, Internet Data Collection) meticulous longitudinal study synthesizes oftentimes elusive and ephemeral exit poll statistics from disparate sources over the past four decades. While the tables and figures on presidential and congressional voting preferences in chapters four and five comprise the bulk of the book, readers will also profit from the first three chapters, which offer a history of exit polls, explain the authors' methodology, and discuss the changing demographic and ideological composition of the electorate. VERDICT Although this noteworthy work may also appeal to general audiences, its primary readership will likely be students and scholars, making it a useful addition to academic libraries' political science collections.-David Ettinger, George Washington Univ. Lib., Washington, DC (c) Copyright 2012. Library Journals LLC, a wholly owned subsidiary of Media Source, Inc. No redistribution permitted.

CHOICE Review

Prior to this volume no previously published work has attempted to develop a coding scheme to create a single data set to identify trends and relationships in exit polls across time. Best (Univ. of Connecticut) and Krueger (Univ. of Rhode Island), both of whom have experience as CBS News exit poll analysts, have studied the exit polling data from the 1972 election through 2010. The project developed from their desire to be able to put the 2008 exit polling data into historical perspective, and their discovery that this was not easily done. In a two-year project they created an original coding scheme, merged the results, and generated user-friendly spreadsheets. Through this effort the authors have produced results that examine demographic backgrounds, lifestyle choices, economic considerations, and political orientations; their findings appear in tables, graphs, and written interpretations. The work is designed for academics, journalists, and political observers. The information provided includes the exact wording of both the questions and the response options for the nearly three-dozen questions repeatedly asked in exit polls over four decades. Reading the data permits readers to see the Democratic and Republican support in both presidential and congressional races. The media use exit polls to project final results, and analysts use them to determine strengths and weaknesses in support for various candidates. A history of exit polls begins this work, and a useful index closes it. This is an important contribution that will see wide use by historians of the political scene and others seeking a better understanding of voting trends in the United States. Summing Up: Highly recommended. Lower-level undergraduates and above; general readers. G. R. Walden Ohio State University

Notas de autor provistas por Syndetics

Samuel J. Best is associate professor of political science at the University of Connecticut. He has written numerous articles on public opinion and electoral behavior appearing in journals such as the American Journal of Political Science and Public Opinion Quarterly. He has coauthored several books, including Internet Data Collection, with Brian S. Krueger (2004), and coedited Polling America: An Encyclopedia of Public Opinion (2006). He has served as an exit poll analyst for CBS News since 2004 and was the director of the Center for Survey Research and Analysis at the University of Connecticut.
Brian S. Krueger is associate professor of political science at the University of Rhode Island. He has coauthored two books on polling and elections: The Politics of Cultural Differences (2002) and Internet Data Collection (2004). He has also written scholarly articles for journals such as Political Behavior and the Harvard International Journal of Press/Politics. He served as an exit poll analyst for CBS News during the 2008 election season.