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The end of communist rule in China will be one of the most momentous events of the twenty-first century, sounding the death knell for the Marxist-Leninist experiment and changing the lives of a fifth of humanity. This book provides a likely blow-by-blow account of how the Chinese Communist Party will be removed from power and how a new democracy will be born.

In more than half a century of rule, the Chinese Communist Party has turned a poor and benighted China into a moderately well-off and increasingly influential nation. Yet the Party has failed to keep pace with change since stepping aside from daily life in the late-1970s. After nearly a hundred years of frustrating attempts to create a workable political system following the overthrow of the last dynasty, the prospects for democracy in China are better than ever, according to Bruce Gilley.

Gilley predicts an elite-led transformation rather than a popular-led overthrow. He profiles the key actors and looks at the response of excluded elites, such as the military, as well as interested parties such as Taiwan and Tibet. He explains how democracy in China will be very "Chinese," even as it will also embody fundamental universal liberal features. He deals with competing interests--regional, sectoral, and class--of China's economy and society under democracy, addressing the pressing concerns of world business. Finally he considers the implications for Asia as well as for the United States.
The end of communist rule in China will be one of the most momentous events of the twenty-first century, sounding the death knell for the Marxist-Leninist experiment and changing the lives of a fifth of humanity. This book provides a likely blow-by-blow account of how the Chinese Communist Party will be removed from power and how a new democracy will be born.

In more than half a century of rule, the Chinese Communist Party has turned a poor and benighted China into a moderately well-off and increasingly influential nation. Yet the Party has failed to keep pace with change since stepping aside from daily life in the late-1970s. After nearly a hundred years of frustrating attempts to create a workable political system following the overthrow of the last dynasty, the prospects for democracy in China are better than ever, according to Bruce Gilley.

Gilley predicts an elite-led transformation rather than a popular-led overthrow. He profiles the key actors and looks at the response of excluded elites, such as the military, as well as interested parties such as Taiwan and Tibet. He explains how democracy in China will be very "Chinese," even as it will also embody fundamental universal liberal features. He deals with competing interests--regional, sectoral, and class--of China's economy and society under democracy, addressing the pressing concerns of world business. Finally he considers the implications for Asia as well as for the United States.

Tabla de contenidos provista por Syndetics

• Introduction
• Part 1 Crisis Democracy and China Democracy's Spread
• The Struggle for Democracy ( China's Democratic Potential Broken Promises
• The Republican Failure Mao's China Post-Mao Reforms
• The Last Days of Dictatorship
• The Torment of CCP Rule
• The PRC System
• A Metaphor for Transition State and Society Sustaining Economic Growth
• The Social Malaise
• A Troubled Diplomacy Political Dysfunction Resources for Change Tocqueville's Paradox
• The Privatization of Economic Life New Ideas New Societies Democratic Diplomacy and US Policy Border Effects and Global Civil Society Political Decompression
• Part II Transition Breakdown and Mobilization Predicting Change Gradual Democracy?
• Metastatic Crisis Popular Mobilization Violence Last Ditchism Collapse?
• The Eve of Transition Democratic Breakthrough Extrication or Overthrow?
• The Heroes of Retreat The Pact Ending the PRC
• The Immediate The Interim Regime Sudden Politicization International Reaction
• Part III Consolidation The Political Challenge Will Democracy Fail?
• Legacies and Choices New Institutions Federalism Secession
• The First Election Rights and Interests Rights: Threats and Safeguards Towards Consolidation Political Life Local Politics and Hong Kong Refurbishing Economic and Social Life
• The Struggle for Interests Growth and Development Social Welfare Regional Interests
• A Free Society Dealing With History
• A Changed International Role Democratic Peace Transitional Diplomacy
• Relations With the U.S. Relations with Asia Taiwan, Tibet and Xinjiang
• Conclusion
• References

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Library Journal Review

Gilley (Tiger on the Brink: Jiang Zemin and China's New Elite) is well qualified to write about Chinese democracy, as he spent more than a decade in China and Hong Kong working for the Far Eastern Economic Review Magazine and currently studies political science at Princeton. Instead of building on the previous work of historians Merle Goldman and Elizabeth Perry (Changing Meanings of Citizenship in Modern China), Gilley draws on the political philosophy of John Rawls. Here he asserts that for Chinese democracy to be effective, Chinese policies have to prevent elite groups from subverting the system. The policies must focus on sustaining innovation, effective regulation, safety, environmental protection, and financial health. Gilley gives a fascinating account of what democracy will look like, arguing that it will unquestionably emerge in China because "the moral being is increasingly making its presence felt and demanding more space for self realization." He discusses the basic requirements of how to write a new constitution, form a merit-based bureaucracy, establish federalism, anticipate the possible secession of Tibet and Xinjiang, and administer fair political campaigns and elections. Finally, he argues that China's democratization will likely transform global politics at every level. Highly recommended for academic and public libraries.-Peggy Spitzer Christoff, Rockville, MD (c) Copyright 2010. Library Journals LLC, a wholly owned subsidiary of Media Source, Inc. No redistribution permitted.

Publishers Weekly Review

This book is an optimistic prediction from a journalist with more than a decade's experience reporting for the Far Eastern Economic Review. Gilley argues, against Huntington's Clash of Civilizations, that China's culture is not alien to democratic possibilities and that democratization will result not from popular overthrow of the existing Communist one-party state but through gradual reform from above. He anticipates a "revolution in values" through which the elite will becomes more public-spirited and less self-interested. Such faith in a moral elite is a prominent shared theme in both Eastern and Western political philosophies, but recent trends in Chinese political culture point toward deepening corruption and cynicism rather than such a moral revival. Gilley's arguments and evidence are thoughtful, provocative and well expressed, but his optimism seems forced. He sees hope in the contradiction between aspirations and opportunities generated by a market economy and the restrictions of an autocratic political system. He speaks of "Society" versus the "State." However, this neat dichotomy obscures the reality that most of China's business elite is successful because of close ties to state officials; the one-party bureaucratic state is part of what stabilizes the fortunes of those now on top. Multiparty political competition and true rule of law could be more dangerous to China's business elite than muddling through with the bureaucratic devil they already know. Though Gilley may overestimate the incentive for insiders to promote democratization, this book is an important contribution to the debate about China's future. (Apr.) (c) Copyright PWxyz, LLC. All rights reserved

Booklist Review

Presently a doctoral candidate in politics at Princeton University, Gilley has also reported on China for the Far Eastern Economic Review0 and coauthored China's New Rulers0 (2002). Here he elaborates on a political prediction: by approximately 2020, the ruling Chinese Communist Party (CCP) will leave and democracy will arrive. He is confident in this forecast because recent transitions from dictatorships, both right and left, to democracy mean that the CCP will not be immune to the global trend. Sensitively observant of China's sociopolitical scene, Gilley discourses on the balance of reforming and reactionary forces in the CCP, and speculates whether the party's exit from power will be violent or peaceful. Expecting the latter, Gilley proceeds to detailed analysis of possible structures for a post-CCP constitution and, possibly, a federal rather than a unitary China. Although the author speaks to his immediate audience of China specialists such as himself, his prose is accessible to anyone wishing to study contemporary China in a serious way. --Gilbert Taylor Copyright 2004 Booklist

Notas de autor provistas por Syndetics

Bruce Gilley is an assistant professor of political science at Portland State University. He serves on the editorial board of the Journal of Democracy and is the author of Tiger on the Brink: Jiang Zemin , China's New Elite, Model Rebels: The Rise and Fall of China's Richest Village , and, with Andrew J. Nathan, China's New Rulers: The Secret Files. He lived in China and Hong Kong for more than a decade, working as a journalist for the Far Eastern Economic Review Magazine.